Forecasting the housing market: Presumption, projection and personal observation

[This began as a one paragraph caveat to the next installment of For the Benefit of Mr. Git, but grew.  I’ll post the latter later.] 
I’m not an economist.  If you want one, NAR’s Lawrence Yun was named by USA Today as one of the top five in the United States.  His tables are elaborate, his analyses detailed and nuanced, […]

In Housing (as in all things) the free market works

George Will is always good, this morning particularly so because it’s particularly pertinent, and should give a little more definition as to where I stand on government intervention.  It’s worth reading in its entirety, but key:
The market, which bewilders and annoys liberals by correcting excesses without the supervision of liberals, is doing that as housing […]

The Lighter Side of Serious: What’s wrong with this picture?

All pulled from the MLS today:

Offered at $385,000: One Fire Hydrant!

Window coverings negotiable!

Wonderful use of color!

Yes!  The world really is flat!
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[If anyone would like to preview any of these properties, please let me know…]

March PDX Real Estate Numbers; First Look

As I said in an earlier comment:  Not pretty, not dire, about where it’s been since last August.
This is for all residential property categories in the greater Portland area, the same area covered in data released by RMLS in a couple weeks.  Note these numbers will change somewhat; books are still being updated.
MEDIAN PRICE

[As always, […]

More on Portland Housing Supply …

Terradatum has just added a new search algorithm that gives a condensed and more up to date view of a given market:  Six months, broken into weekly and twelve week increments.  It came out yesterday so I haven’t had time to go over it in depth, but one chart stands out.  This chart (click for […]

Bubblers and Ripples

 
photo credit: chris9486
USA Today has a story today re a connection between the decline in housing and the decline in electronics sales.  As most things that show correlation without showing causation, it’s interesting but not much more.  It does, however, dovetail nicely with a post I’ve considered writing to those numbered and universally nameless […]

HUD, FHA, GSE, ETC.

Housing and Urban Development just released its national list, by county, of new limits for conforming loans and qualified FHA loans.
Interesting: the median price for the Portland Metro area was figured @ $335k, so limits for both FHA loans and conforming loans went to $418,750.  That’s insignificant for conforming loans - they’ve been $417k - […]

Feb 08: First look at the numbers

One of the nice things about transparency - as opposed to spin - is that when the numbers actually doreveal themselves there’s no backpedaling, readjusting or respinning necessary. 
And early February numbers - note they’ll continue to adjust for the next week or so - are exactly as expected.  These are for all catagories in the […]

On the Theory People Don’t Want Spin; Portland Market Dynamics

Charles Turner asks an excellent question:  How Do We Measure Real Estate Markets?  Statistics exist to prove almost anything one wants to prove; what, though, will give the best indication of a market’s health?
When I was with Nordstrom in the seventies, volume was king.  While most department stores calculated success on their gross margin, we […]

Conforming Loan Limits: In Portland, They Are What They Are

Prior to the final passage of the recently signed and inaptly named Stimulus Bill*, it was speculated that the conforming loan limit - the $417,000 cap on loans bought by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae - would be extended to as much as $729,000, thus allowing such jumbo loans to be financed at a much […]

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