September Yawn

Almost entirely as expected.  Sales down (roughly) 20%; median price now down 10% from peak to $270k, lowest since October, 2006; MSI staying at 9.9 months.  Biggest surprise to me:  Homes going under contract were only down 2%.

I still think we’ll need to get to ~ $250k to see an uptick in sales.

As always: click on […]

A Farewell to Farms

Contrary to Bubbler fantasy, it’s impossible to do an adequate job for clients as a part time broker.  There’s simply too much involved. 
So, for now, I’m sending my license back to Salem.  I’ve turned my clients over to my brother John - he’s just closed one, another is in escrow - and will come back only when […]

A break from politics for some real estate … August Numbers

More of the same.  Since last year the September numbers started to reflect the credit crunch, beginning next month there should be a less dramatic decrease in sales, but for now it’s still not pretty.
Note Terradatum has changed format somewhat, now offering one year monthly increments and YoY comparisons.  The following is for the Portland […]

Lake Oswego: Update

I came across a home that’s been on the market in Lake Oswego since March ‘07 that just went pending.  I wrote here that because of inordinate new construction LO had more inventory than most areas and that prices would have to drop in order to clear it out.  This listing started life at ~ […]

July PDX numbers: More of the same.

July and August, 2007, were the peak months for Portland Metro median price, both @ $300k.  The mortgage crisis hit in late August, so I think by September we’ll see a deceleration of the 35% drops in sales and an acceleration of the drop in median price.  But not this month.
Median price:  $290k, down 3.3%.  […]

Portland Metro Housing Affordability

In the interesting but not definitive category:
Each quarter RMLS publishes a little talked about Housing Affordability Index, another due out when they release June numbers in a week or so.  It takes into account median family income (via HUD), median home prices and prevailing interest rates; then, assuming 20% down on a thirty year fixed […]

June Median Price for Pending Sales Ties All-Time High!

And so it goes.
The actual headline will be more like this:  “Median price up From May 1.6%, Down Only Slightly - 1.2% - from June 2006.  Portland Real Estate Market Much Better Than Most of U.S.!”
But.
Here are the prevailing price trends; blue is pending, green the actual sold price:

Clearly the gap between list price and […]

A (Real Estate) Tale of Two Cities and Four Zip Codes

For those who still doubt that all real estate is local, I thought it would help to compare two areas with approximately the same number of listings (detached single family).  The first - the southeast zip codes of 97202 and 97206, encompassing Woodstock, Eastmoreland and Sellwood - has 438 active listings; and the second - […]

April numbers: There’s somethin’ happenin’ here, what it is ain’t exactly clear…

I said before I people and situation watch, because that can give early cues before the numbers catch up: 
Nationally the DOW just went over 13,000 - up 13.5% since January - unemployment went down when it was expected to go up, and fresh $600 checks are taking some of the mental agony out of $3.60 gas prices.  […]

Housing demand; market inertia, addendum

Git reminded me what I forgot in the last post: what will reverse inertia?
There are many who blame the media for much of the downturn, and think it’s the media that can pull us out.  Emphasizing the negative froze buying; perhaps emphasizing the positive can inspire the thaw.  Wrong on at least two counts:

People are […]

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