McCain will be president. He’s the NotObama.
Posted on July 29, 2008
Filed Under Obama, Politics, Diversion |
In the buying and selling of almost anything - certainly homes or shoes - this adage applies: Given adequate function, the fastest selling or the highest volume will be not those that are the most attractive, but rather the least offensive. [Traditional floorplans with beige walls; plain toes in black or brown.]
And that’s how we’re picking the leader of the free world.
For the last eight years the left’s prime paradigm has been “NotBush!”; anything he’s for, the left is against. That was Hillary Clinton’s claim to inevitability, and “NotBush!” was her, and the other eight or nine who ran on the Democrat side, tacit campaign theme.
But Hillary suffers serious negatives herself, and the smooth-talker from Chicago took advantage with a “NotHillary!” theme of his own. It wasn’t until she recovered from the resulting stupor that she crafted a “NotObama!” blitz, by then too late, even though she crushed him in the last month of the campaign.
McCain, meanwhile, won on a more subtle “NotBush!” perception, given his offensiveness to those who at least used to be Bush’s base. The left crossed over in Republican primaries to vote for him, and the day went to those who thought being more like a Democrat was the key to a Republican victory.
So as we enter the last hundred days before the election the left is desperately clinging to the “NotBush!” theme - which isn’t going to stick - and the public is gradually learning, with the curtain stripped away, how very little there is to Barak Obama.
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Two things are Obama’s undoing: Americans gravitate toward and root for the underdog; and its corollary, Americans hate arrogance and condescension, especially when unaccompanied by merit.
As to the underdog, the pictures, say, from the latest world tour that were supposed to lift Obama to polled heights, had instead a negative effect. People aren’t stupid: they see and hear the fawning media, read about the lopsided coverage, and know without having to be told that the major networks and press are in the tank for an Obama presidency. John McCain gets off the plane in New Hampshire (I believe) to one camera and one reporter. People want fair, and they know it’s not fair. Contrary to popular opinion: Advantage McCain.
Obama’s arrogance has been well chronicled, nowhere better than Charles Krauthammer’s The Audacity of Vanity. I suspect he can’t help it: so surrounded he’s been by Mylie Cyresesque idolatry that he believes in his own anointment. He thought his own presidential seal was a fine idea, that he really will stop the seas from rising, that a few well chosen words would summon world consonance, that flipping on campaign finance (or the war, or guns or whatever) is a consequence not of the flipper in question, but of his audience’s inability to comprehend. Jeremiah Wright could damn America to his heart’s content and Obama stuck by him, but once he insulted Obama - by implying he’s a typical politician - under the bus he went.
There’s nothing in my power of observation that suggests I can see things others can’t. Subtly and not so subtly the elitism is transparent. Advantage McCain.
And merit? Even the left is beginning to voice doubt (I suspect the doubt has existed all along).
Obama’s greatest advantage - perhaps his only strength - is his soaring rhetoric and his ability to soothe and captivate with promises of what he’s going to do.
The problem is he’s never been a position long enough to actually do anything; as soon as he moves in to a new office he applies for a promotion. That saves having to follow through, but the consequence is:
Accomplishments: None.
Advantage McCain.
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Note I haven’t mentioned policy. I do think the economy in general and real estate in particular will plummet under a high tax/high spend Obama administration - imagine the current mess then add Carteresque interest rates.
But I think that even those who swoon at the thought of a European socialist government are going to think twice about putting someone into office whose sense of entitlement is inversely proportional to his level of achievment.
Obama for president? Not going to happen.
UPDATE:
As if on cue, to healing the planet we can now add this, delivered last night to adoring House Democrats:
Inside, according to a witness, he told the House members, “This is the moment . . . that the world is waiting for,” adding: “I have become a symbol of the possibility of America returning to our best traditions.”
…Right.
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16 Responses to “McCain will be president. He’s the NotObama.”
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SO in 8 years, how many times did we raise the debt ceiling, now sitting at $9.815 trillion and threatened? Think we will need to raise it again to bail out Freddie and Fannie? And the next 100 failed banks? How are we going to pay for the Iraq/Afghanistan/Iran war?
Record number of folks on food stamps…
Can’t wait for these 8 years to be over!
Hard to talk politics w/o talking policy…
>Hard to talk politics w/o talking policy…
Of course. But Obama tries to see his way around it by taking all positions simultaneously. So having been exposed as just another politician, his greatest problem is he has no history to anchor what he really believes. An empty suit.
Incidentally, the Freddie/Fannie bailout is an expensive short term fix and a long term disaster.
Seriously, how does one get the nation back on track after major tax cuts and failed-to-stimulate-the-economy rebate checks and record spending which has lead to record deficit?
How can you NOT raise taxes? I do not see military spending slowing down, replacing gear and destroyed equipment/trucks/tanks/etc and don’t forget about taking care of those folks after they serve our country, health care needs, MENTAL health care needs, etc.
What is John McCain’s plan? I ask mainly because between motherhood, a nauseating pregnancy and working FT it’s a challenge to keep up on everything.
>Seriously, how does one get the nation back on track after major tax cuts and failed-to-stimulate-the-economy rebate checks and record spending which has lead to record deficit?
The tax cuts DID stimulate the economy - revenue is at an all time high - and the just published numbers for second quarter show a 1.9% increase in GDP, so the rebate helped at least on paper, though there’s a good argument that taking a few tens of billions OUT of the economy in order to put a few tens of billions back IN is phantom growth.
Our problem is insane spending, and the Fred/Fan bailout offers a perfect example: Hugely expensive - potentially hundreds of billions - and backloaded not to protect the consumer, but bank execs and the politicians who voted in favor (See?? WE CARE!) Obama has over a trillion dollars in NEW spending on the table; even though he’s never shown a propensity to follow through on promises, we can be pretty sure he doesn’t lean toward being fiscally prudent.
Plus: his tax proposals - e.g. raising the cap-gains to 39% - stifle investment and could bring the economy to its knees. Note it’s investment that creates jobs; more jobs, more revenue.
[Bearlee’s a MOM? Congrats on the new one; kids are why we live…]
I asked what McCain’s plan was/is?
Yeah, I spoke too soon about the rebate checks. It didn’t provide the bounce expected but it was a bounce though it is expected to be very short lived.
Did I see somewhere that the housing bail out included eliminating the tax bennies of a second home? Maybe they did write in some sanity but likely not enough to pay for itself.
Looks like I need to read up some more on my options.
BTW I am a mom of toddler with another one on the way! How did my mom handle 6 of these things! Two sounds like a good number, you think?
Guys — I’ve been sayin’ since before Hilary lost to Obama, that who won was irrelevant. Goofy and Mickey could beat either one.
This is 1980 all over again. It’s gonna be fun watchin’ it unfold.
And for the record, Jeff — your simple but piercing analysis was inspiring.
Good thing those republicans have done such wonderful things for the economy……
Economic models predict clear Obama win in November
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - It really is the economy, stupid! Economic models that have correctly predicted the winner of almost all post-war U.S. presidential elections say recession fears will secure a victory for Barack Obama in November.
Three separate studies showed the Democratic presidential hopeful winning between 52 and 55 percent of the popular vote on November 4, based on current gloomy economic estimates.
Any further darkening in the economic outlook — many analysts think things will get worse between now and November — would reinforce that election outcome.
“The economy is certainly not going to be a positive for the Republicans,” said Ray Fair, an economics professor at Yale university who built the earliest of the models in 1978.
>I asked what McCain’s plan was/is?
It’s not as much as what McCain will do as what he WON’T do: Spend, and his track record confirms that. I suspect he’ll pull out the pork veto pen far more often than Bush, who’s been a huge fiscal disappointment. He’s also a vehement opponent of earmarks, those anonymous and un-voted-on gifts that the pols slip into appropriation bills. He’s also promised to work to make the Bush tax cuts permanent; recision is just another form of tax increase.
[Two’s a GREAT number! I’d be loved out if I had more than two…]
>This is 1980 all over again. It’s gonna be fun watchin’ it unfold.
And it’s getting more fun all the time!
>Good thing those republicans have done such wonderful things for the economy……
I’m no fan of the way Bush has handled spending, but here’s an assignment for you: graph the health of the economy, then lay that on top of the day Nancy Pelosi became Speaker. Note that the House is where appropriations generate; note, too, that the congress is at its lowest approval rating ever, ten points lower than the president.
THAT is infinitely more indicative of where the election’s going than faux correlations.
Since the economy was built on housing over the past few years and now we see an obvious decline, ie, 7 months of job loss, what will the next president inherit? Sure Bush had some boom times but it wasn’t sustainable. I think the next prez is going to take a beating no matter what his policies may bring. We have 8 years to undo.
Did McCain vote for the housing bail out? The Freddie/Fannie bailout?
Will he throw ‘em out the door if he is Prez?
>Did McCain vote for the housing bail out?
In March McCain declared strongly against a housing bailout, later discarded when he proposed his own version, essentially with the same elements.
Obama was adamantly in favor from the beginning, in fact used the occasion to propose an additional $50 billion bailout.
Neither actually voted.
If McCain had an ounce of charisma he might could prove you right. The guy is about as inspirational as Walter Mondale.
>If McCain had an ounce of charisma he might could prove you right.
Ordinarily, perhaps significant.
But McCain is the perfect antithesis to the gaudy charisma of Obama. That’s to his advantage.