March PDX Real Estate Numbers; First Look
Posted on April 3, 2008
Filed Under Portland, bubbles, Statistics, Selling Real Estate, Buying Real Estate, Real Estate |
As I said in an earlier comment: Not pretty, not dire, about where it’s been since last August.
This is for all residential property categories in the greater Portland area, the same area covered in data released by RMLS in a couple weeks. Note these numbers will change somewhat; books are still being updated.
MEDIAN PRICE
[As always, click for a two page PDF]
Up YoY about 1.5%, likely the lede in the Ryan Frank piece published in a couple weeks, the story line that we’re still in the black.
But the only good news I see in it is that bubbleheads, absent the desired price tank, will have to spend another month agonizing with a “Well, next month for sure!” In fact it means that first time buyers are struggling to enter the market, and investors for the most part are still watching from the sidelines. But trumpeted as good news, it will have the undesired effect of keeping sellers who should be dropping price from doing so.
The corollary, of course, is that the bestnews this market could use is a 5% drop in median, which will probably be accompanied by a slight uptick in pending sales. But, like the Case/Shiller drop of a couple weeks ago, it will make for front page above the fold hysteria.
PENDING (Under Contract) UNITS
I’ve used pending sales - as opposed to actual solds - because it’s more contemporaneous in two ways: ‘Sold’ reflects the market as it existed 30 to 60 days prior; and numbers for ‘Sold’ properties will continue to be posted for another week.
Down YoY about 30%. ‘Solds’ will end up down about 35%.
INVENTORY - For Sale - and ABSORPTION
Just a two-year iteration of what seems like a declining trend. People who don’t have to sell, aren’t. (FS includes all properties for sale at least one day in the given time period.)
Another picture of essentially the same dynamic.
MONTHS’ SUPPLY of INVENTORY
Based on pending sales, 7.6 months. RMLS - based on closed sales - will come in around 8.5 months.
As always, this: The buying and selling of real estate comes down to the individual home on the individual block in the individual neighborhood in the individual district in the individual town in the individual MSA.
AREIL.
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5 Responses to “March PDX Real Estate Numbers; First Look”
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Thanks for the data Jeff - looks like a bit of a stalemate at the moment.
Sellers refusing to “Give it away” and buyers sitting on the fence.
It’ll be interesting to see how the spring season progresses - I agree with you analysis - no real change.
Nonsense! We bubblebloggers are totally realistic! For instance, I firmly believe we are poised to overtake Tokyo, Paris and London for real estate value. Why, with our UGB we should be seeing 20,30, even 40% yearly appreciation from this spring to the end of time!
Jeff, can you explain this comment?
“Just a two-year iteration of what seems like a declining trend. People who don’t have to sell, aren’t. (FS includes all properties for sale at least one day in the given time period.)”
That looks like an increasing trend to me. The trend line is meaningless, you can’t apply a trend line to seasonal data and get anything out of it.
Also, what’s the story with comment #2? It looks like a link farm to me, any idea how they auto generate a worthless comment like that?
I honestly think we’ll see increased downward pressure on prices this year.
From a pure supply demand perspective -
Sales down 35% and inventory is up about 15%.
It’ll be an interesting spring for sure and I think it’ll give a good indication about what way the market here is going to go.
>That looks like an increasing trend to me. The trend line is meaningless, you can’t apply a trend line to seasonal data and get anything out of it.
You would be mistaken.
First, if you look closely you’ll see that all the trend lines are seasonally adjusted; that’s what makes them trend lines.
Second, note the actual numbers: From the For Sale peak in Oct 06 to March 07 the decline was 4.6%; from Oct 07 to March, 08: 12.3%. From the low in Dec 06 to March 07, the increase was 13.9%; Dec 07 to March 08: 8.0%.
Thus a declining trend.
>Also, what’s the story with comment #2? It looks like a link farm to me, any idea how they auto generate a worthless comment like that?
No. Most spam ends up in the moderation folder, and this one I usually catch. It’s been deleted.