Feb 08: First look at the numbers
Posted on March 5, 2008
Filed Under Portland, Statistics, Selling Real Estate, Buying Real Estate, Real Estate |
One of the nice things about transparency - as opposed to spin - is that when the numbers actually doreveal themselves there’s no backpedaling, readjusting or respinning necessary.
And early February numbers - note they’ll continue to adjust for the next week or so - are exactly as expected. These are for all catagories in the Portland Metro area:
Median Price
It’s fluctuated in a very narrow range the last couple days; right now it’s about $600 higher in ‘08 than Feb ‘07. It will finish somewhere in the +- .5% range, or as flat as you can get. It continues to drop, though, from its August high, now down about 7%.
Unit Sales
I detect a pattern. Down right now from Feb 07 about 37%, will finish down between 30% and 35%.
Months Supply of Inventory
Again, this is based on pending sales for the month; MLS calculates on closed sales so is roughly a month behind and will trend higher (not all pending sales close). That number, calculated today, would be 10.9 months, will finish around 10 months.
Now, once again!, to emphasize that All Real Estate Is Local: I’m about to list a single family home in Tualatin for $310k. Here’s the MSI for Tualatin, under $400,000:
We have to take into consideration a much smaller sample and the fact that sales in the category are down here as well, but so is inventory, and Days On the Market for homes going under contract is 45, as compared to the metro area’s 88.
AREIL. Consult your local representative…
PS If anyone would like me to run numbers in a specific market at a specific price point, I’ll be happy to do so as time allows. Just email me via the ‘contact’ link on the right sidebar.
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