December numbers; and a Special Plea to the Oregon Association of Realtors
Posted on January 5, 2008
Filed Under Statistics, Portland, Selling Real Estate, Buying Real Estate, Real Estate, Marketing, General |
Richard Gaylord, president of the National Association of Realtors, was interviewed on local station KXL a few weeks ago:
http://arkansasrealtors.net/files/richard_gaylord.mp3
The gist:
“I’m optimistic about the market in your area and around the country … We see sales remaining strong [in Portland], increasing 1% in 2008, and we also see prices increasing 2% in 2008.”
Well.
Here are the preliminary charts for December, 2007:
Unit Sales:
[Click chart for two page PDF]
Median Price:
Month’s Supply of Inventory:
Granted, there is a great deal of media driven anxiety in the market driving buyer reluctance. But you don’t counter anxiety with demonstrably fatuous predictions.
We haven’t had a month in the last 22 with a YoY sales increase, and we’re going to finish 2007 with nearly a 13% drop (continued strong sales??). Most of that decrease came in the last four months, after the tightening of the credit markets. We have a high inventory, and have dropped nearly 7% on the median price since the July/August high. Nothing in those numbers supports a 1% increase in sales or a 2% increase in price.
Here’s a simple syllogism: The NAR - and OAR and PMAR - theoretically are in business to represent my best interest. I, both by statute and by Code of Ethics, am in business to represent the best interest of my customers. Ergo NAR’s in business to represent my customers’ best interest. Those are people I care about a great deal, and get seriously grumpy if someone tries to mislead them.
I’ll follow up on that concept, but for now a quick memo to OAR: You’re apparently scheduled to spend some of the $1.7 million special assessment fund you’ve just collected by dovetailing ads with the NAR Spring Public Awareness Campaign.
Please don’t.
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2 Responses to “December numbers; and a Special Plea to the Oregon Association of Realtors”
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Jeff, I could not agree with you more. It’s sad that all Realtor Associations somehow can only find something positive to say about any market condition while ignoring the obvious negative data to the contrary.
kevnmarty: Thanks! I have nothing against saying things positive - there are still a lot of good reasons to buy (and even sell) in this market - I object to the totality of the ‘Don’t worry, be happy!’ of the NAR message. Realtors owe their clients all the information necessary to make solid decisions.