The Media and the Market
Posted on October 24, 2007
Filed Under Builders, Buying Real Estate, Real Estate, General |
David Oringdulph – Legend Homes – was interviewed in Sunday’s Oregonian. In the interview he emphasized – and emphasized! - what I (and many others) have been saying for awhile: In the Portland real estate market fundamentals are essentially good; it’s the media that have driven buyer confidence – as measured in sales – south. Yes, we’ve had the subprime fiasco and the tightening of the credit markets, but still the media are to the Portland market what the Santa Ana winds are to the Southern California conflagration. [It’s fair to note that the media helped drive the market when it was going UP at a record pace.]
The Oregonian, though, has been largely innocent of the charge. They could have trumpeted the September numbers as “Sales dip over 25% from September’06! Inventory skyrockets to 8.6 months!” but didn’t. They were much more (correctly) measured in the reporting; the lede was even the 7.5% appreciation as opposed to anything negative. (Not that there isn’t calculation. Builders and realtors are two of The Oregonians remaining four consistent revenue streams.)
The problem, instead, has been the national media, which not only delights in all things apocalyptic, but which tars Portland with what’s happening in, say, Las Vegas. As I type, this is on the Drudge Report, in Look at Me! red:
Sales of Existing Homes Fall by Largest Amount on Record…
It’s not until you click through and read - carefully - that you find that ‘on record’ goes back to: 1999, when NAR first combined single family homes and condos. Oh, well. Details. Big deal.
Jim Cramer’s famous - and fatuous - statement on the Today show exemplifies the point: “Don’t you dare buy a home now.” Right, Jim.
The point is this: All real estate is local. That’s not a happy-face talking point that NAR put out to try to spin negative news. It’s truth, and has been for as long as there’s been real estate.
And not only is what’s happening in Las Vegas barely applicable to what’s happening in Portland, what’s happening in Portland is barely applicable to what’s happening in Lake Oswego; is barely applicable to what’s happening in Westlake; is barely applicable to what’s happening in Brighton; is barely applicable to what’s happening on Provincial Hill Way; is barely applicable to what’s happening at 13515. Real estate is that local.
There are many, many good values available to savvy buyers…
…or not so savvy buyers with savvy agents.
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